克什米尔被遗弃的冰川 // Kashmir’s abandoned glaciers

Link: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/ch/4692-Kashmir-s-abandoned-glaciers

亚瑟•帕维兹

2011年12月13日

实地监测喜马拉雅山西麓融化冰川的项目寥寥无几， 就在科学家们称现在比以往更需要深入了解冰川变化，这对下游上百万居民依靠的水资源系统将产生巨大影响之时，对项目之一的资金支持最近又终止了。喜马拉雅冰川是亚洲主要河流的发源地，也是世界上消融最快的冰川。各个冰川情况不同，融化速度无人知晓。现在所知的是，喜马拉雅西麓冰川的融化将导致一些河流水量减少，而在这些河流流经的区域，水资源一直是争夺的焦点。

据总部设在新德里的能源与资源研究所（TERI）的可靠消息来源证实，由于资金中断，该机构已经被迫停止对喜马拉雅西坡克什米尔地区喀拉霍伊冰河的监测。2010年，专家就2030年喜马拉雅冰川是否会消失争论不休，这一被称作“冰川门”事件导致美国的基金会停止了对监测项目的援助。但能源与资源研究所尚未公开宣布该项目已经停止。

在喜马拉雅冰川没有精确的基准数据的情况下，该研究所从2008年起开始对该地区冰川进行监测。由于像恒河源头根戈德里（Gangotri）冰川这样的大型冰川体积过于庞大，无法作为基准，相对较小的冰川成为了监测对象，印度北部的查谟-喀什米尔邦的和印度东北部的锡金邦分别设立了对喀拉霍伊冰河和东瑞松冰川的“冰川监测观察站”。

能源与资源研究所的专家表示，直到不久之前，科学家们仍定期使用先进的科学设备，对两座冰川包括能量、质量和水文平衡等在内的各项数据进行监测。

起初，该研究所前研究员赛义德·伊克巴尔·哈斯南负责监测冰川，收集基准数据。但《政府间气候变化专门委员会2007气候变化报告》出炉后，他陷入了是否夸大预测喜马拉雅冰川融化程度的争论之中，随后离开印度前往美国，将工作交给了研究所另一位科学家施莱沙·塔雅。来自研究所以外的消息称，塔雅派当地导游阿什拉夫·噶捏拍摄冰川照片，通过传送来的照片远程监测。

研究所另一位不愿意透露姓名的人士称，虽然冰川学家和气候专家们根据已收集到的可靠数据一致认为，至少在未来的二十年里需要监测喜马拉雅冰川，但冰川数据收集工作已经中止。

科学家们认为，应该同时长期监测该地区所有冰川，以分析影响喜马拉雅冰川融化类型的气候变化参数。据称，此类合作将帮助政策制定者制定更有效的方案和缓解措施，发展该地区的观测系统。

喀拉霍伊冰河是克什米尔的长期水源之一，同时养育了杰赫勒姆河的重要支流里德河 。杰赫勒姆河不仅仅滋养着克什米尔的稻田，也为巴基斯坦人口最稠密、农业发达的旁遮普邦提供灌溉水源。

最近几年，印巴两国在水资源分配方面的争端愈演愈烈。两国都是能源需求大国，都希望在印度河流域建立水电设施，这一问题在两国签署的水资源分配协议下得到监管。而杰赫勒姆河及其支流都是印度河流域的重要组成部分。

政治评论家和国防分析家们一直宣称，恐怕南亚的下一场战争将是水资源的战争。“水，最为重要的资源，成为了决定亚洲未来走向合作还是分裂的关键议题。”布拉马·切拉尼教授在他十月份出版的新书《水资源：亚洲的新战场》中写道，“全球年人均用水量为6,380立方米，而亚洲年人均用水量不及全球的一半。世界上最干旱的大洲原来不是非洲，而是亚洲。”

这样一来，类似喀拉霍伊冰河这样，为印巴共用河流输送水源的河流显得更为珍贵。很多科学家警告，喀拉霍伊冰河正在以惊人的速度消融，很可能在几年之内完全消失；气温升高，降雪量减少以及人类活动都对冰河造成了极大的摧毁。

塔斯瓦尔 坎特和其他两位来自克什米尔大学研究冰川变化动态的同事说，1992年，该地区的冰川为11.22平方公里，而2005年为10.69平方公里，13年里，冰川面积减少了0.53平方公里（年均减少0.04平方公里）。

这些科学家承认：“该地区的气象数据也印证了这一变化。”据计算，年平均最高气温从1992年的16.2摄氏度升到了2005年的16.3摄氏度；而该地区年平均最低气温从3.69摄氏度升到了4.24摄氏度。坎特和他的同事说，降水量则从1992年的1,371毫米降到了1,300毫米。

研究者们意识到，急需审视人类的各项活动对加速冰川融化的影响。他们指出，喀拉霍伊冰河附近的旅游城市帕哈根(Pahalgam) 的人口总数迅速增长，从1961年的69,299人飙升到了2001年的177,361人。而人口密度也从1961年的每平方公里60人增长到了2001年的每平方公里153人。一位研究者表示：“1975年，前往帕哈根参观旅游的人数只有63,312人，而到了2005年，旅游者人数飞速增长到442,330人。同时，朝圣者的数量也大幅度增加。” 帕哈根市是印度教圣山阿玛纳特朝圣之旅的出发地。

喀拉霍伊冰河位于里德山谷的顶部，帕哈根市在山谷中部。研究者们称， 里德山谷的平均最高气温飞速上升，导致积雪融化速度加快，而增高的平均最低气温导致冰川无法冻结到必需的程度，最终将影响冰川的寿命。

现在，遥远的喜马拉雅冰川缺少科学观测数据，而冰川的变化有可能危及亚洲上百万人民的水安全，像目前被中止的喀拉霍伊冰河项目这样的实地监测能够对变化进行长期监测，对冰川研究十分关键。对该研究的保障基金应该位于政策制定者预算案的首位。

亚瑟•帕维兹，驻克什米尔的环境记者

Funding cuts have brought a halt to one of the few on-the-ground projects monitoring receding ice in the western Himalayas. The move comes as scientists stress there is greater need than ever to boost our understanding of glacier changes, which will have a huge impact on the water systems of millions of people downstream.

Himalayan glaciers – which feed the major rivers of Asia – are the fastest shrinking in the word, but conditions among them vary considerably and rates of decline are unknown. What is known is that melting glaciers in the western Himalayas will reduce river flow in a region where competition over water resources is already a major flashpoint.

A reliable source at the New Delhi-based Energy and Research Institute (TERI) confirmed that the organisation has been forced to stop monitoring the receding Kolahoi glacier in Kashmir in the western Himalayas after project funding was axed. It has recently emerged that funding was cut by a US-based foundation back in 2010, in the wake of “Glaciergate”, the controversy surrounding inaccurate claims that the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2030. But TERI made no public announcement that the project had stopped. 

TERI started monitoring the glacier in 2008, against the backdrop of an acute lack of benchmark data on Himalayan glaciers. The organisation decided to monitor smaller Himalayan glaciers because other glaciers like Gangotiri(the source of the Ganges River) are too large to act as benchmark glaciers. And so it established “glacier monitoring observatories” at Kolahoi glacier in the north Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir and at East Rathong glacier in the northeast state of Sikkim. 

According to experts at TERI, until recently these two glaciers were being regularly monitored with state-of-art scientific instruments for various parameters, including energy, mass and hydrological balance. 

Initially, former TERI scientist Syed Iqbal Hasnain monitored the glacier to collect benchmark data. But after he was caught up in the controversy over exaggerated predictions about melting Himalayan glaciers made in theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 report, Hasnain went to the United States, leaving another TERI scientist, Shresth Tayal, to monitor the glaciers. Sources outside TERI in Kashmir said that Tayal monitored the Kolahoi glacier remotely, through local tourist guide Ashraf Ganie, who took pictures and sent them to Tayal. 

The news from sources at TERI, who want to remain anonymous, that they have given up data collection comes in spite of the consensus among glaciologists and climate scientists that, for reliable information to be gathered, Himalayan glaciers need to be monitored for at least two decades. 

Scientists assert that all the glaciers across the region must be studied simultaneously on a long-term basis to determine climate change parameters regulating the melting patterns of Himalayan glaciers. This kind of collaboration, they say, would allow policymakers to devise more effective adaptation and mitigation strategies and help develop a regional observation system. 

The Kolahoi glacier is a permanent source of water for Kashmir and feeds the Lidder river, an important tributary of Jhelum river. The Jhelum not only nourishes Kashmir’s paddy-fields, but also provides irrigation for Pakistan’s agriculturally-rich Punjab province, the most populous province in the country. 

In recent years, friction over shared water resources has been rising between India and Pakistan. Both energy-starved countries are seeking to build hydropower projects in the Indus river basin, which is governed by a water-sharing treaty designed to resolve disputes. The Jhelum and its tributaries are vital parts of the Indus basin. 

Fears that the next war in south Asia will be over water are continually expressed by political commentators and defense analysts. “Water, the most vital of all resources, has emerged as a key issue that would determine if Asia is headed toward cooperation or competition,” writes Professor Brahma Chellaney in his book Water: Asia's New Battleground, published in October. “After all, the driest continent in the world is not Africa but Asia, where availability of freshwater is not even half the global annual average of 6,380 cubic metres per inhabitant.” 

This lends an even higher premium to glaciers like Kolahoi, which feed the rivers shared by the south Asian rivals India and Pakistan. Many scientists warn that the Kolahoi glacier is retreating at an alarming rate and might vanish completely within a few years. They say increasing temperatures, reduced snowfall and human activity have greatly damaged the glacier. 

Tassawur Ahmad Kant and two other researchers from Kashmir University, who are studying the changing glacial dynamics of the Kolahoi glacier, say that the area of the glacier decreased by 0.53 square kilometres in 13 years; from 11.22 square kilometres in 1992, to 10.69 square kilometres in 2005 (an average decline of 0.04 square kilometres every year). 

“This change is ascertained by the meteorological characteristics of the study area,” these scientists assert. According to their calculations, the average maximum temperature showed an increase from 16.2 degrees Celsius in 1992, to 16.3 degrees Celsius in 2005; whereas the average minimum temperature for the same years was 3.69 and 4.24 degrees Celsius respectively. Precipitation, say Kant and colleagues, has also declined, falling from 1,371 millimetres in 1992 to 1,300 millimetres in 2005. 

Observing the urgent need to check the impact of various human activities on accelerating glacier recession, the researchers also point out that the total population of Pahalgam – a tourist town in Kashmir near Kolahoi – has grown rapidly, hitting 177,361 in 2001, up from just 69,299 in 1961. Population density has also increased from 60 people per square kilometre in 1961 to 153 people per square kilometre in 2001. “The number of tourists arriving towards the Pahalgam has increased sharply from 63,312 in 1975 to 442,330 in 2005. The same trend was found in the increase of pilgrim tourists,” said one researcher. Pahalgam is the starting point for a trek to the Holy Hindu cave of Amarnath.

According to the researchers, the alarming increase in average maximum temperatures in Liddar valley – the Kolahoi glacier is situated at the head of the valley and Pahalgam in the middle – is inducing rapid snow melt, while the increase in average minimum temperatures is preventing water on the glacier to freeze to the required extent. This will ultimately affect the glacier’s lifespan. 

Given the lack of scientific data on the remote Himalayan glaciers, field research like the now stalled Kolahoi glacier project remains key to understanding the long-term changes that could threaten water security for millions of people in Asia. Securing funds for glacier research should be at the top of policymakers’ shopping list.

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